GLOBE AND MAIL May 14, 2001

B.C. Greens poised for future flight

JOHN IBBITSON POLITICS

VANCOUVER

Ian Gregson has brought his entire campaign team - all five members - to this drab, east Vancouver intersection on this drab weekend afternoon to hand out leaflets and wave signs. His efforts earn him little more than some encouraging words and polite nods from passersby, and a tirade from a man who thinks his dentist ruined his teeth.

But Ian Gregson, 38, a computer technician with an open smile and traces of a Lancashire ancestry still flavouring his accent, is a happy man. As candidate for the Green Party of British Columbia in the riding of VancouverHastings, he has seen a movement once considered almost beyond the fringe rise in popularity to rival that of the governing NDP.

"We have come further in the last two weeks than we have come in the last four years," he exults. "Ten years from now the NDP will have disappeared as a political party in this province." History suggests he may be right.

The Greens will almost certainly not win a seat in Wednesday's provincial election. Although they are essentially tied with Premier UjjaI Dosanjh's NDP, at around 15 per cent, they lack the necessary concentration of support in a few key ridings.

And the NDP still has at least the remnants of an organization in place, which means it will be able to get what is left of its vote out on

Wednesday. Mr. Gregson's NDP opponent, Joy MacPhail, is deputy premier and education minister. Mr. Gregson has five friends and a budget of $1,500. Even Mr. Gregson's wife is planning to vote NDP.

The Greens, however, see this election as pivotal. Political parties that for years dominated the B.C. government have repeatedly imploded after losing elections.

Traditionally, this has happened on the right, as first the Conservatives, then the Liberals, then Social Credit, and now the Liberals again, controlled the conservative side of this province's polarized political spectrum. The Greens are gambling that the same phenomenon is now occurring on the left. The NDP under Mr. Dosanjh may well be dissolving. If so, then many of its members may switch to the Greens, especially after that party's creditable showing in this election.

"Momentum, it's absolute momentum," says Green Leader Adriane Carr. "People are so deeply disappointed in the performance of the NDP ... they are looking for a new alternative."

While Ms. Carr remains insistent her party can win seats on Wednesday, she acknowledges that in a larger sense, "we are laying the groundwork in this election."

The arrival of former NDPers will, however, pose challenges for the Greens. The party's platform is still, well, out there.

Although the Greens pronounce their commitment to a balanced budget and fiscal responsibility, the party is also committed to first capping, then reducing oil, gas, and mineral production. It would impose severe restrictions on the province's logging industry, and reshape the provincial sales tax to reward environmentally friendly purchases and punish wasteful acquisition.

The question is whether the Greens will be willing and able to temper the more extreme elements of their platform to accommodate the moderate wing of the NDP.

Across Canada, whenever a competent political leader or party replaces a deeply discredited administration, the new premier can usually count on at least two majority governments. (Frank McKenna, Gary Filmon, Roy Romanow, Ralph Klein, Mike Harris.) Precedent, then, suggests Gordon Campbell will emphatically win, not only Wednesday's election, but the one four years hence.

If so, either the NDP will revive and form the official opposition under a new leader in 2005, or it will collapse and the Greens will rise. Or both parties will share opposition space.

But that is years away. For now, Ian Gregson can only hand out his leaflets, watch the polls, and proclaim moral victory. His first job after the election will be trying to get his wife to switch her vote.